Source: Projections of near-term climate change are a potential research tool. However, for that tool to be most useful, the physical basis for a prediction must be made clear. The basis for our projection of record 2026 global temperature is high climate sensitivity, with its implication that aerosol cooling was still increasing during the period 1970-2005. One consequence, global sea surface warming, already has important effects. Causes of climate change must be understood for policy purposes. Figures in this post and our recent papers are continually updated on our website.[1] We are also now on Substack[2].
Prognosticators such as Nostradamus and the Wizard of Oz need not explain the basis of their opinions, as they are entertainers or charlatans. All others, at least with climate projection, should define the basis for their projection, so that their efforts contribute to improved understanding. In our post[3] on 30 April, we concluded that 2026 global temperature will exceed the 2024 level, despite the fact that 2026, so far, has been running substantially cooler than 2024 (Fig. 1). Our projection was that the 2026 temperature (the red curve in Fig. 1) would pass the 2024 monthly temperature in midyear and then exceed 2024 monthly temperature in the remainder of the year by an amount large enough to make 2026 the hottest year, eclipsing the 2024 record.
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